Update: 1/21 We do have brunch this week hosted by Sara Spencer. Check out the details here and sign up to bring something!
Every year I will have one or two people come up to me and ask: “I’ve been running for about 2 years now, how fast do you think I can run the 1/2 marathon?” Or “This is my second half-marathon, I’m in much better shape. How much time do you think I can drop?” The answer: I have absolutely no idea. Now when someone comes to me and says: “I ran a 20:30 5k race last weekend, what do you think I should shoot for in the 1/2 marathon?” Now that’s something I can work with…
When the race distance doubles (i.e. from a 5k to a 10k) seasoned runners slow down by about 16 seconds per mile, while novice runners slow down around 32 seconds per mile. (GREAT runners slow down by about 12 seconds per mile….) So you can estimate your longer race potential by running a shorter race and then extrapolating. For example, to estimate your 1/2 marathon potential from a 5k, the distance basically doubles twice (5k to 10k then 10k to 20k). Therefore, from a 5k to a 1/2 marathon your pace should slow down between 32 and 64 seconds per mile. Of course that seems like a wide range…and it is. Faster, better trained runners slow down less, and slow less seasoned runner slow down more. A good goal for those of us between 7:00 pace and 9:00 pace on a 5k is to slow down between 40 and 50 seconds per mile. If you want to be really specific – check out the McMillan Pace Calculator – a lot of runners swear by it.
This week all of us are running a 3 mile time trial to get a benchmark for our potential in the 1/2 marathon. The intermediate and the advanced are going to jog SLOWLY out to the 3 mile mark, and then time trial back in. The novice will run for 10 minutes around the lake, then time trial out and back to the 1.5 mile marker. After that, you can add on as much extra mileage as you might need… Then we are going to use these times for our workout next week (January 29)….more on that later.
See you Sunday morning, 9 a.m. in Shelby Park by the nature center.